Warning: What you are about to read will change your life. Proceed with caution, and there is no turning back.
Some weeks ago, in a private conversation, I was told of some analytical projections on Bitcoin and I did some homework myself… just to see if it works and how it would work. Admittedly, my initial reaction was that it was absolutely lofty and frivolous at best. However, having learnt my life lessons, I kept an open mind and decided to spend some time to look into the hypothesis that it might be plausible, even if remotely. So, what was it that ruffled my feathers, enough for me to spend weeks pondering over it, and almost a day in skeptical analytic scrutiny?
“Bitcoin is likely to end the bear market in August 2019, and rise to USD160,000”
There you go, see what I mean? You just pondered similar thoughts I had when first heard it.
So, allow me to share how I sorted it out in chart form…
Below is the Bitcoin USD, BTCUSD, weekly log chart since 2013. The previous bear market was marked out and measured, as was the massive bull market thereafter. Then, using the data points, it was superimposed onto today’s bear market and the expected imminent bull market. A log chart was used as this is an amplified asset class which does not move in a linear fashion. This was quite clear in its recent bull run of dizzying pace that left many in awe. Furthermore, in order to fit the graph visibly, a log scale would be more appropriate.
Given these parameters, a few observations were made:
1. The current bear market is tracking a similar pattern as previously;
2. The low of the bear market might have been clocked as it had a similar -85% pullback from the high;
3. There will be a few more test of the 55EMA in the weeks to come, and these are followed by higher lows (small grey box in chart);
4. There maybe another low, given a tolerance of +/- 10%, at 2600; and
5. The super rally should be later in 2019 and is projected to reach USD150,000 as a target at the end of 2021.
Given these projections and knowledge from historical behaviors, now what do we do with it? Let us consider the probabilities here; TWO base case scenarios…
A. The hypothetical projection model above is correct.
It would be extremely unforgivable had we known this prior and did not take action. Such opportunities come a few times in a lifetime, and when initially presented, is always an unbelievable proposition that never happened before.
The opportunity loss per USD1000 is a whopping 42,000%!
This means that for every USD1,000, it becomes USD42,000; a 14,000% return per annum. 😳😳😳
B. The hypothetical projection model above is incorrect.
Here, the base case assumption is zero, where the asset is of no value.
The loss per USD1000 is 100%
Given the above risk reward scenario, it is definitely not for the faint hearted.
Your reward to risk ratio is an unbelievable 420:1.
Clearly, this alternative asset class should be managed and prudently invested with money that can be viewed as spent.
In conclusion, while we have some time now, spend it wisely to do your due diligence and at some point soon, take action.
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