Since the spectacular run in the first half of 2019, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been in a consolidating triangle, and is possibly about to break out…
The BTCUSD daily chart was marked with a U shaped recovery to breakout of the triangle in early August. There are a few resistance constraints to this breakout; firstly, a repeated rectangular box range (marked out in white); secondly, the triangle resistance (purple). On the other hand, the bullish indications include, MACD cross up (green arrow, bottom panel), a break over the EMAs, a higher high following higher low.
This was followed by more bullish indications along the U shaped line, with MACD crossing over into bullish territory, a continuation of the TD Setup, up to the point of the triangle resistance where price pierced through but never closed above. Note the TD Setup is favoring a pop over the last high (of the candle 7). This is a rule in TD setups where, if the high of candle 8/9 is lower than the high of candle 6/7, there would be a breakthrough of the last high, 3 to 5 candles later…
The green candles represent the points of real entry into BTCUSD made. The question asked might be what are the reasons behind the bullish expectations of BTCUSD?
While the financial market volatility opens the door for Bitcoin, as an alternative store of value for some, there is indeed a larger technical pattern that provides decent upside from this imminent breakout.
Below is the weekly log chart of BTCUSD. There is a long term channel that BTCUSD appears to be trending within. Based on this chart perspective, the optimal buy date was 8 April 2019 at about 5500. Meanwhile, BTCUSD price ascension appears favorably bullish pending an imminent breakout for much higher target price, estimated and marked to be about 100,000.
These data interpretations allow a modeling of price action, and probability of variations, which aids in setting expectations of what might happen. Currently, BTCUSD appears to have an increasing probability of bullish bias.
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